The release of two quantum computing Executive Orders out of the White House on June 22, 2026 has everyone in the technology and federal contracting space buzzing. Quantum computing has been one of those science fiction topics people have been talking about for years but never seemed real to most people. The Executive Orders move quantum computing from a niche tech topic to front and center and the country is now putting a full force effort into advancing this technology.
I have been doing research, writing papers and following quantum physics and computing for over 20 years. Though I am not splitting atoms in my basement, I do feel very comfortable discussing everything from quantum entanglement, photon capture, room temperature quantum processors and the ongoing debate of the quantum standard model. One of the reasons I started Kiwi Futures was to pursue work in the quantum computing space.
Needless to say, I believe the Executive Orders are both timely and needed. The pace of advancement in quantum computing in the past year has been exceptional, and all indications are the speed will only increase in the upcoming months. Given this new interest in quantum computing, I think it is important to put some reality into the discussion. So here are a few reality points that are important to understand as the quantum era begins.
The Economic Issue — Q Day is Not Y2K
The primary concern with the advancement of quantum computing is the ability to break encryption routines that are foundational to the internet and every system across the Department of War to the financial systems that run the economy. This is a valid worry as the encryption routines in these systems assume that there is a limited mathematical calculation that can’t be accomplished, which is what provides protection. Quantum computing can beat this calculation and, therefore, can break the encryption routine.
The date when a quantum computer can break the standard encryption routines has been give the kitschy term “Q Day”.
Q Day estimates have ranged from 2029 to 2035 and, given the speed of technological advancement, have been getting closer and closer over the past few years. The reality issue with the use of Q Day implies it is like Y2K. For those that remember, we had a crisis as the clocks changed from 1999 to 2000 that supposedly would make most computers in the world fail. (It had minimal impact, but it was a concern) Q Day has been presented similarly as the day when all encryption routines will be compromised and the internet falls apart.
Reality Check 1 — How Much Value Per Attack? I have little doubt that quantum computers will be able to break encryption in the relatively near future, so the concern is valid. However, quantum computers and quantum computing are going to be very expensive for quite a while. You won’t be able to run to Radio Shack and get a quantum computer to break into your neighbor’s bank account. What allows a quantum computer to break encryption is the ability to solve mathematical calculations through a combination of algorithms and speed that had previously not been possible. This means that the quantum computer needs to be targeted at one encryption instance to break the routine which allows attackers access to the computing device, network or data.
What this means is that only nation states with large budgets and large computing environments will have the ability on Q Day to actually compromise systems. So highly sensitive and critical infrastructure systems that might be the target of nation states do need to move quickly. Protecting your Instagram account is not at risk anytime soon.
This economic issue should be front and center of all organization’s quantum strategies. The Executive Orders call out protecting High Value Assets as a required step. The strategies should take this even further and ask “what encryption key would be worth millions of dollars to break?” If you look at the question this way, the approaches change to new architectures that minimize the value of a single encryption breakage, the use of file level encryption and minimizing large data storage locations.
Reality Check 2 — Watch The Operating System — Quantum computers are very different than traditional binary computers that we all know. You can’t get a version of Microsoft DOS and put it on a quantum computer. Each of the quantum computing companies has their own controlling system for their computers. IBM has Qiskit, Google has Cirq, Quantinuum has TKET. Related to Reality Check 1, this uniqueness makes building applications for quantum computers quite focused and expensive. There is, however, a growing interest in developing a cross computing “quantum OS” with efforts such as the Quantum Internet Alliance QNodeOS. Whether one platform becomes the leader (like Microsoft did with DOS) or a general open model emerges, the development of a quantum computing OS is as important a date as Q Day.
The first company to create a broadly adopted quantum operating environment may have as much influence on the future of computing as Microsoft had with DOS, or Linux had with cloud computing. Standardizing how applications interact with quantum hardware could prove to be as significant as increasing qubit counts
The creation of a quantum computing OS will begin to drop the cost of creating quantum computing capabilities. This not only will make breaking encryption cheaper, it will also enable the creation of applications that cure diseases, facilitate space exploration and enables billions of other possibilities. This also enables those who want to attack our systems to move from nation states to criminal actors.
Reality Check 3 — It’s More Than Encryption — That there were two Executive Orders is important. Most are focused on the protection executive order, but the Ushering In The Next Frontier of Quantum Innovation order is even more important. For those of us that have been following this world, new achievements and discoveries are happening almost every week. From Microsoft’s Majorana room temperature chip to the recent use of entangled particles to communicate from large distances without wires, this is a world that is screaming in innovation. These advances will fundamentally change our world. For example, a quantum computer could create massive training datasets for AI that would accelerate that world even faster than it is moving today. Genetic research that now takes years could take minutes. Even fundamental ideas such as time and space are being challenged with the discoveries in the recent quantum discoveries. Companies of all sizes need to increase their knowledge and understanding of quantum technologies as this new era has arrived.
If this quantum world is new to you and you want to explore how your company or organization can address this new era, contact us at solutions@kiwifutures.com and we can help you navigate this crazy and exciting new world.